Rumours, rumours
There’s an amusing story in the Toronto Star from yesterday suggesting that three Liberals are considering crossing the floor to join the governing Conservatives. As speculation goes, one of them may be Brampton—Springdale MP Ruby Dhalla, bringing the number of Dhalla-joins-Tories rumours to about forty-seven over the last five years.
Now, as far as political scoops go, a single, anonymous Conservative staffer isn’t much to go on. (Attach a name like Stephen Taylor to the report, on the other hand, and it might gain some credibility.) But regarding Liberals crossing the floor, well, that’s a different story. It’s perfectly plausible that there are three Liberals considering defecting; as a matter of fact, considering the shape the Liberals have been in over the last few years, I’m surprised there haven’t actually been more as of late.
The strangest thing, however, is how the Liberals responded to the Star’s report yesterday: Liberal MPs Ken Dryden and Marc Garneau took to the media to denounce the report as a Conservative attempt to divide the Liberal caucus.
| “ | … memo to Dryden and Garneau: it’s impossible to credibly deny a report that your own caucus members are considering leaving | ” |
Memo to Dryden and Garneau: as a defector, you generally try to avoid tipping off the party you’re considering defecting from; Eastern Bloc defectors knew that well (imagine if Viktoria Mullova had told her Soviet watchers of her intention to flee to Sweden and seek asylum at the American embassy?). So, if there’s someone in the Liberal camp actually considering crossing the floor right now, they won’t be telling you.
It’s a lesson Stéphane Dion learned the hard way when Wajid Khan left to join the Tories at the beginning of 2007. Mere hours after Dion claimed that the MP was a “committed Liberal”, Khan was appearing at a press conference alongside Stephen Harper announcing his entry into the Conservative caucus. In short, it’s impossible to credibly deny a report that your own caucus members are considering leaving.
All that said, however, if the story is true—and that is a gargantuan “if”—I still don’t think Ruby Dhalla will be joining the Conservatives anytime soon. For one thing, it’s hard to imagine that the Conservatives are actually interested in having Dhalla cross the floor. The idea, as it is commonly articulated, is that the Tories would love to have the young visible minority MP as the face of their outreach to immigrants and ethnic groups. But the Conservatives, thanks in no small part to the efforts of multiculturalism point man Jason Kenney, are doing just fine without her; as a matter of fact, they almost took Dhalla’s own riding in the most recent election, falling less than eight hundred votes short.
As for Dhalla, she simply has too much to lose. Her preference for party leader, Michael Ignatieff, is well in control at the Liberal helm now. Moreover, Dhalla is the young star—Justin Trudeau notwithstanding—in the Liberal caucus, and it does not stretch the imagination to consider her a contender for the Liberal leadership five or ten years down the road, so long as she continues to retain her seat. It’s quite difficult to imagine her giving up such a position to join a party that, only months ago, was painting a political bullseye on her forehead.
Don’t get me wrong; there might actually be several Liberals considering joining the Tory caucus in the very near future. I’ll just be darned if one of them happens to be Ruby Dhalla.